Santabulous

Santana.jpg

Opening Day couldn’t have gone much better for the Mets. Johan Santana was outstanding, giving up two runs over 7 innings, striking out 8. Wright, Beltran and Reyes each get two hits, Wright drives in 3 and Ryan Church and Angel Pagan each drive in a run. Not too shabby. Sure, it’s the Marlins, but the Mets need to beat up on the bad teams and play well against the good teams. And this, for many reasons, was a nice first step. 

2008 Predictions

OK, none of this start in Japan or, as the Nationals have on their field, “Opening Week” nonsense…Monday is Opening Day, so as far as I’m concerned these are on time. If you want, watch the season anyway, but this is what’s going to happen.

 

AL East

Yankees

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Devil Rays

Orioles

The Josh Beckett injury will come into play, and the fact is that the Yankees’ aren’t much changed from last year. Look for the Sox to take a step back, the Yanks to stay the course, and that will be enough for the Yanks to win the division. As for the excitement about the Devil Rays, they will improve, but we need to calm down a bit about this team. Baseball Prospectus projects they win 88 games…if the Rays win that many, I’ll eat a Devil Ray (the animal, not a player, though I’d eat Rick Peterson if it would bring Kazmir back to the Mets.)

 

AL Central

Cleveland

Detroit

Chicago

Minnesota

Royals

I know everyone’s raving about Detroit, but pitching wins, and Cleveland still has more of it than the Tigers do. This is a two-horse race by the All-Star break.

 

AL West

Angels

Mariners

A’s

Rangers

Forget the hype about the Mariners. They can’t score, and Bedard and Felix Hernandez only pitch 2 games every 5. The Angels pitching has been hit by the injury bug, but they still win this division by 5+ games. My friends over at BP actually say the A’s will be better than the Mariners, but I don’t buy it. Oakland takes a step back this year.

 

NL West

Diamondbacks

Rockies

Dodgers

Padres

Giants

Forgotten in all the talk about Brandon Webb and Dan Haren is Randy Johnson. Expect the Unit to miss time with his balky back, but when he pitches he’ll be effective more often than not. So good young bats make the D’Backs the class here. I know the Dodgers have gotten a lot of love, but I don’t buy it. What I do buy is the Giants struggling to win 70 games…I say they miss.

 

NL Central

Brewers

Cubs

Cardinals

Reds

Astros

Pirates

I know everyone seems to be picking the Cubs, but I don’t quite get why. I don’t love their pitching as much as a lot of other people seem to, and I just think the Brewers are on the rise and that continues this year.

NL East

Mets

Braves

Phillies

Nationals

Marlins

Call it a homer pick if you want, but look at it this way: The Mets’ collapse last season obscured an 88 win season. A historic collapse is unlikely to occur again. How have the Mets gotten worse? Church over Shawn Green? A wash worst case, an improvement best. Schneider over LoDuca. Two years ago I wouldn’t have said this, but right now I’ll take Schneider’s staff control over LoDuca’s presence, which was his greatest gift and wore out. A full year of Luis Castillo at 2B is an improvement, and Pedro and Santana replace Glavine and Jorge Sosa/El Duque. That’s a big improvement, and the reason the Mets take the division. I think the Braves top the Phillies, too, as the Phils have too many pitching questions right now, and I’m no big fan of Pedro Feliz or Geoff Jenkins at this point in their careers. I will say, though, that the idea that anyone is counting on something from Mike Hampton is purely comical. What could stop the Mets? Health, obviously. But I’m betting on Delgado not being worse than last year even if he’s no better, and a big year from Pedro, who’s playing for a contract and to retain his “Acehood.” For someone like Pedro, this matters.

AL Playoffs

Tigers over Yankees

Indians over Angels

Indians over Tigers

NL Playoffs

Mets over Brewers

Diamondbacks over Braves

Mets over Diamondbacks

 

World Series

Mets over Indians

 

If there’s one thing wrong in these predictions, it’s that the D’Backs absolutely can knock off the Mets, in what should be a great pitched series. But I still think whoever wins that series wins it all. Injuries could just as easily put the Mets in third in their division…that’s how fragile things are for this team. I’m putting a lot of faith in Pedro, honestly. We’ll see if that is rewarded.

Now let’s play ball!

GH

Good guesses, bad calls

So now that the Mets have announced their final cuts, I get to pat myself on the back for getting 24 of the 25 men right (yes, I know 20 or so were givens, but 24 for 25 sounds much better). I was right on the Matt Wise and Brady Clark calls, though I expected Duaner Sanchez to make the team. Joe Smith will fill his slot, as Sanchez was placed on the 15-day DL, retroactive to March 27, as the Mets hope he can strengthen his arm a bit more.

 

But in the “what are they thinking” department, the Mets waived Ruben Gotay, who was then claimed by the Atlanta Braves. Positively stupid maneuver. Gotay has a good bat, and his defensive deficiencies are clear but in a bench player not the key to making a roster move like this. You need roster depth, and though out of options Gotay could have been placed on the DL with his ankle injury. To just give this kid away makes no sense, particularly when I hear the team liked Fernando Tatis…FERNANDO TATIS…better. That’s crack-addict dillusional right there.

 

The alleged explanation for Gotay leaving is that the Mets need a righthanded stick off the bench, and Gotay doesn’t provide that because, though a switch hitter, he’s terrible righty. But the mad dash for a right-handed bat off the bench was a known quantity with this team for a long time…to suddenly panic about it at the end of spring shows that Minaya dropped the ball leading to this point. This isn’t saying Gotay is an all-star by any means, but he’s useful, and you don’t surrender useful for nothing.

 

Back later with season predictions.

 

GH

 

 

 

The Maine Event

Yes, it’s just spring training, and I’ve said previously I don’t put much stock in that, but man John Maine has looked outstanding. I’m a big fan of Johnny’s just because he’s the quiet guy who just goes out there and does his job, but he’s looking set up for a great season. Snubbed from the All-Star game last year, Maine threw a gem on the next to last day of the season that Tom Glavine obliterated the following day, but he’s come back looking in great shape and in great command. Best example of Maine’s makeup…when asked about his personal goal for the season, he didn’t give wins, Ks, an individual leaderboard item. Nope…he wants to throw 200 innings. Excellent!

Oliver Perez was smacked around by the Indians the other day, giving up 4 homers. Those are days Perez has. When he’s off, he’s WAY off. He may be more "electric" than Maine, but Maine is the #3. Perez is #4.

As for #5, we may be looking for Craig Swan, because El Duque and Mike Pelfrey seem disinterested in taking the job. Fighting for the slot, Hernandez came out against Cardinals and, without topping 85 mph, he gave up 5 runs over 3 innings of work. Pelfrey of course came out and gave up 8 runs on 13 hits in 4 1/3 innings. That Nelson Figueroa is allegedly getting some consideration for the 5-slot at this point should tell you all you need to know.

Damion Easley got some time at shortstop the other day, yet another sign Randolph really doesn’t want Anderson Hernandez on this squad. If Easley can be a capable backup for Reyes, Hernandez is destined for AAA once more.

Aaron Heilman has reportedly finally come to embrace his role in the bullpen, even counseling fellow reliever Joe Smith as far as game preparation and the like.

Not quite ready

Sorry I’ve been lax the past week, just been bogged down with a bunch of other things. But as we close in on Opening Day and the final cuts around the majors, let’s take a quick look at some of the top prospects whose fates have been decided.

Starting with the Mets, top prospect Fernando Martinez was sent down last week despite a strong spring. Certainly the right move, as he needs more time, but it was nice to see the kid not look overmatched (.343/.373/.426). Even with the Alou injury, it makes no sense to have this kid at Shea at this point. It was nice to see the front office not panic or rush him for P.R. sake.

Tied to the Mets, Carlos Gomez seems set to be the Twins’ opening day center fielder after a solid spring performance (.286, 10 SB). Phil Humber was sent down despite a good spring as well (14 IP, 1.29 ERA, 9 H, 9:3 K:BB ratio).

The Reds sent baseball’s top prospect, Jay Bruce, down as well. Bruce had hoped to earn the center field spot but suffered an early-spring quad injury that derailed him a bit. He’ll start in AAA, and everyone is saying all the right things. I don’t have a problem so much with Bruce going down to AAA to get regular at bats, as I do that the guy who will be taking those at bats at the big league level is Corey Patterson, who ***** like a governor’s call girl. Manager Dusty Baker loves Patterson, which means an overextended stay at AAA for Bruce in all likelihood.

On Bruce’s heels (both as the top prospect and on the bus down to the minors) is Tampa Bay’s Evan Longoria. Though he hit only .262, he walked 10 times to 7 strikeouts, giving him a .407 OBP and a .595 SLG for the spring. When your options are Willy Aybar and Joel Guzman, this move makes no sense for any other reason than to delay Longoria’s arbitration/free agency. I know the Rays aren’t winning the division or making the playoffs, but with everyone and their brother touting this team as a "surprise" this year, why **** that energy from the team and send down the phenom? Part of me understands their logic, but the other part of me hates the move.

Cameron Maybin, the centerpiece in the Marlins’ Miguel Cabrera trade with the Tigers, was sent down as well. His 3 homers were nice, but he hit .190 for the spring with 15 strikeouts in 42 at bats.  For that performance they could sign Rob Deer and delay Maybin’s service time clock.

Back later with some Mets focused items.

The final cut?

Half the fun of the end of spring training (and yes, there actually is an end in sight) is taking a look at the teams’ expected Opening Day rosters. Though the Mets aren’t dealing with any real position battles, there are some interesting scenarios shaping up. So with that said, let’s take a look at what we expect:

C: Brian Schneider, Raul Casanova

Schneider’s hamstring remains balky, as does Ramon Castro’s. Schneider maintains he could go if he needed to, but he’s had 5 ABs all spring. Even so, I’ll assume Schneider will be there at this point. Fathead Castro is still waiting for his MRI to come back. I think he’s shelved for a while, and Casanova, a respectable backup, will be there Opening Day.

1B: Carlos Delgado

Until the anvil falls on his head cartoon-style, I’ll assume he’ll make it to Opening Day. Seriously…4 stitches from a broken bat? Somebody better break out Cerrano’s JoBu, and load up on the rum…the good stuff, not the bottle on the shelf with Crazy Horse and Olde English 800.

2B: Luis Castillo

Hobbled himself, Castillo took his sweet time coming back, but supposedly feels OK after playing a few games. In fact, he says he wants to run more. I want to be in the shape I was when I played in college…wanting it won’t make it happen. Let’s just try to keep Castillo’s legs functional and let Reyes steal the bases around here.

3B: David Wright

No problems here. Are there ever?

SS: Jose Reyes

Pair of steals today make me think Jose is gearing up for Opening Day. Obviously no issue here.

OF: Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, Endy Chavez

Beltran feels fine, which was the big concern. Back to back days in the field have been handled well, so that should mean he’s good to go.

Rotation: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Oliver Perez

Bullpen: Billy Wagner, Aaron Heilman, Pedro Feliciano

That’s 16 guys we’re reasonably sure about. Sure, Castro depends on the MRI, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it. Since the final spots are usually weighing bullpen roles, we’ll work backward from there on the final 9 slots.

Mike Pelfrey should get the final rotation slot. El Duque hasn’t even pitched in a game yet, so while Pelfrey hasn’t been as sharp his last two times out as the first two, he’s still the best option here. Leave Hernandez down in Florida to fix his bunions or whatever else is bothering him. Dismissing Hernandez is foolish, as he was their best pitcher last year when he was healthy. But he’s incredibly frustrating to deal with.

Jorge Sosa has been great, as has Scott Schoenweis. That takes care of your long reliever and your second situational lefty.

The team wants Duaner Sanchez ready. But he has to show he’s able to pitch 3 or 4 times a week, and so far the Mets haven’t seen that. Still, what other options are there. The fact is, the team can carry 12 pitchers if they aren’t sure about Sanchez’s workload. Consider him a given, and if they want backup, Matt Wise will make the team as the 12th arm over sidearmer Joe Smith, who many feel has great stuff but needs to develop a bit more confidence/killer instinct. In fact, Pelfrey could even be left off the Opening Day roster since the Mets don’t need a 5th starter until the second week.

Four spots left. Damion Easley gives right-handed pop and infield versatility. Marlon Anderson is a lock as the best pinch-hitter on the planet. Angel Pagan has been outstanding this spring, and while that doesn’t mean he’ll be great going forward, it does mean he gets the hot-hand benefit of the Mets current outfield problem.

With one slot left, the assumption is Jose Valentin. But this new neck problem could mark the end of Valentin, as it’s not really a new problem, but an old one that’s crept back. I like Jose a lot, personally and as a useful role player. But I don’t think he’s making this team out of camp. He may get the "extended stay" in Florida rather than be sent to AAA, but I can’t see them bringing him north with the team at this point. I have an odd feeling Valentin’s career is over, and that’s a shame.

I think Brady Clark is going to get the last spot on this roster. He’s hitting .300 this spring, can run a bit, is regarded as a solid defender and can play all three outfield spots. Don’t be surprised if he is told to grab a first baseman’s glove and pick up some ABs there as well if Delgado needs a breather. Perhaps that’s just me trying to justify my praise of his pickup a few weeks ago on this blog.

Pedro looks good

Pedro2Big outing (as big as a spring outing can be, anyway) for Pedro Martinez today, who came through his first real game situation of the spring with flying colors. Four scoreless innings, four strikeouts, four hits and a walk.

I’ve seen reports this was nothing great by Pedro, not what you would expect from him so close to Opening Day. That’s silly.

Look, Pedro is not going to party like it’s 1999 again. Those days are gone. But I watched this guy make the Braves look silly two years ago without breaking 86 on the radar gun. The man is simply remarkable. He does it more with guile than power now, but he’s a brilliant tactician, if it makes sense to use that in baseball.

He may not hit 95 on the radar anymore, but if he’s dealing in 90-92 on a regular basis (and since he’s hitting 90 now there’s no reason to think he won’t be once he’s gotten a bit more work), he’s still going to be a force and I would match him and Santana against any top 2 in baseball.

There’s a lot on Pedro as far as this team goes. That’s risky, given his injury history. But I have a feeling Pedro likes it this way, that it’s on him. The great ones, after all, always want the ball.

A fine line

There’s a fine line between confident and stupid, and I think Jimmy Rollins is crossing it. First off, let me say without a doubt the guy talked the talk but walked it and then some last year. He deserves a ton of credit for that, because he put a ton of pressure on himself. But his latest quote is simply stupid:

"That wasn’t a one-year thing," Rollins was quoted as saying in the April issue of Men’s Journal. "It’s still gonna ring true in 2008, and every year I’m with the Phillies. We’re going to win. It’s gonna come down to who wants it more, and we want to win more than the Mets do. Truthfully, I don’t worry about anybody in our division, or anybody in our league for that matter. I’m not worried about getting into the playoffs, because that part is accomplished. We’re a playoff team now. Our next goal is to win the World Series."

Let’s see:

- It’ll be true every year he’s with the Phillies. Well, you’ve been there since 2000, Jimmy. There’s not a lot of basis for this statement.

- "We want to win more than the Mets do" Huh? I guess it’s a safe statement because it’s immeasurable, so it can’t be dissected other than to point out it’s a ridiclous and baseless assertion.

- "I don’t worry about anybody in our division, or anybody in our league for that matter." I guess that includes the Rockies that swept you from the playoffs, right? Stupid, stupid, stupid.

- "I’m not worried about getting into the playoffs, because that part is accomplished. We’re a playoff team now…" No, *******, you were a playoff team last year. You don’t auotmatically get a berth the following season.

I respect Rollins a lot as a player, but he really needs to think before he speaks. I know I can’t expect every player to carry themselves with David Wright’s degree of class, but there’s a middle ground there, right?

Quick Hits 3/15

I’m not a big intangibles guy…I generally think they are the things that people bring up to make players/teams they like who aren’t as good as others seem on par…"well sure he doesn’t give as much offense, but he brings intangibles…" Largely, they’re a bunch of hooey.

Pedro That said, nice piece here by MLB.com’s Marty Noble on the seeming change in Pedro Martinez, not performance-wise, but related to how he’s interacting with his teammates. He’s always been seen as loose, but apparently that’s be ratcheted up and he’s more involved in the general banter, more approachable. Simply, Pedro seems happy. Add that to the apparent friendly rivalry between John Maine and Oliver Perez, and the change seen by many in new dad Carlos Beltran, and we could see a dugout much more like the constant jovial bunch of two years ago than last year’s squad. Of course, winning breeds happiness, too.

Cool piece by Baseball Prospectus’ Will Carroll on evaluating injuries and, more importantly, the "cost" of injuries. Basically, it’s based off BP’s PECOTA projections and a derivative thereof, MORP, which is Marginal Value Over Replacement Player. It assigns a dollar value to a player based on the current market rate, not what they’re actually being paid. As Carroll notes, " If Florida doesn’t lose many [real] dollars to the DL (only $3.2 million last season, despite losing the 28th-most days with 1,253), it’s because they’re not spending money, not because they’re avoiding injuries." Therefore, the MORP equation is a more real value, because it’s based on a player’s actual market value.

I mention PECOTA and BP here and elsewhere. I’m not a "sabermetrician" in the deepest sense, but I also think most people misunderstand sabermetrics just as they misunderstand what the concept of "Moneyball" really is. I’m always amused by the us vs. them attitude that seems to crop up between the sabermetric crowd and the classic stats crowd…it’s silly. It’s the same as the people who mock Billy Beane when one of his choices, i.e. Jeremy Brown, becomes a bust. "Well…so much for ‘Moneyball.’" But what about all Beane’s done right?  That never gets discussed. Sabermetrics are interesting and informative, but you can control how deep you get into them. To ignore sabermetrics as a serious fan is willful ignorance to me. There’s a ton of fascinating information out there.

I can’t believe what a big deal was made about the Yankees letting Billy Crystal play in a spring training game. It was a combination of jealousy someone else was getting to do it, resentment of his celebrity (which ties into the first reason for sure), and the arrogance that places the Yankees as "higher" than other teams and they "are above" such things. Give me a break. They gave a lifelong fan an at bat in spring training. Move on.

I’ll get my predictions out soon, but one team I think people are vastly overestimating is the Seattle Mariners. They can pitch, but they can’t score. The idea they can knock off the Angels is something I just don’t see. Obviously, health plays a part (and John Lackey is out for a month now) . The Mariners have zero power and, outside of Ichiro, little speed. Since they aren’t awash with patience either, you’re asking your staff to win 3-2 or 4-3 every night. Not in the AL, guys.

Biggest loser of the offseason? Kyle Lohse. The guy was seeking a 5-year, $50 million deal – absurd, given his mediocrity – and passed on a 3-year, $21 million deal. Lohse signed with the Cardinals earlier this month for 1 year at $4.5 million. A career losing pitcher with a below average ERA+. I wonder what his next contract will be for. I’m not sure, but I can bet Scott Boras won’t still be his agent.

Who the **** is Shelley Duncan?

Though a Mets fan, I sided with the Yankees in the initial dispute with the Devil Rays (yes, I still call them that. P.C. ridiculousness can, generally speaking, kiss my rear end). There’s no reason to run over a catcher in an exhibition game. Call it "playing hard" if you want, but the fact is the catcher is hung out to dry on this play and is always at a risk for injury. And if you believe for a minute that Don Zimmer’s attitude would have been the same if he were still with the Yankees, then you don’t realize what a clown Zimmer is, and pretty much always has been.

But with that said, somebody needs to remind Shelley Duncan that he is little more than a boil on baseball’s collective ***. The guy may think he’s the next Mickey Mantle, but 20 Ks in 74 ABs last year suggest he’s not long for this baseball world.

If you want to see what a real leader Joe Girardi is going to be, see how he handles this. Somebody better calm this idiot down, because if he pulls this in the regular season, it won’t be him that teams retaliate against. Is it worth getting Jeter cheapshotted on a takeout slide and missing a few months with an ACL tear so Shelley Duncan can tell his friends down at AAA – where he’ll likely be by season’s end – that he was the Yankees enforcer?

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